Buteon Research / Alphabet · NASDAQ: GOOGL
Google: The Ace of
the Stock Market?
From AI reshaping work and play to quantum chips and a fruit fly’s brain, Google’s next chapter reaches far beyond Search. Here’s why Buteon is bullish.
The thesis / 30 seconds
The ace is how the pieces connect.
Google’s parent, Alphabet, can invent technology, build the computing behind it and put it to work for customers. That combination is its case for being the stock market’s ace.
Buteon is bullish over the next three to five years. Cheaper computing and better products could reinforce each other. Shareholders win when that translates into growing cash earnings per share after spending and financing.
Google’s hand / At a glance
One company. Five important fields.
Build the engine
TPUs, data centers and networks.
Train AI, run it, sell capacity.02 / AI modelsMake it capable
Gemini and Argon.
Coding, knowledge work, cyber defense.03 / Products & reachPut it to work
Search, Workspace and Playground.
Advertising, subscriptions, new habits.New computing possibilities
Willow and AI-assisted error control.
05 / Brain scienceNew ideas for intelligence
Neural maps; potential lessons for robotics.
The commercial pieces can reinforce each other. Quantum and brain research extend the horizon; their financial payoff remains unproven.
01 / The computing advantage
Google also builds the engine.
Computing power comes from chips, memory, networking and software working together. Google designs specialized AI chips called TPUs; its TPU 8t architecture groups 9,600 chips in a superpod. That describes a system design, not Google’s total fleet. Google’s architecture ↗
Different chips target training models and inference, running them. Lower costs could help Google improve its own products, compete on price or retain profit from Cloud customers.
Even a rival can become a customer. Anthropic’s agreement with Google and Broadcom covers future TPU capacity for Claude, expected from 2027. Google can supply computing when someone else supplies the assistant. Anthropic’s agreement ↗
Search is still growing while Cloud accelerates. That supports the thesis; it does not isolate AI’s contribution. SEC earnings release ↗
02 / The latest cards on the table
Argon works. Playground plays.
Gemini 4 Argon
Google’s new model targets coding, professional work and cybersecurity defense. Its announcement starts with trusted testers and defenders; broader access is planned to begin with paid API customers and AI Ultra subscribers.
The opportunity: reliable work earns repeat business. Paid tasks matter more than clever demos.
What would make this count?
Paid adoption, repeat usage and profitable delivery. Google’s benchmark claims alone establish none of these; broad availability was not verified at our cutoff.
Playground
Describe a game, make it, then share it. Google’s browser-based experiment launched for U.S. adults aged 18+, with creation access tiered by Google AI subscription. Unity Spark integration is still forthcoming.
The opportunity: making something gives people a reason to return. A weekend game with friends makes AI tangible.
What would make this count?
Returning creators and players, paid conversion and manageable computing costs. Playground’s commercial contribution remains unproven.
03 / The longer horizon
AI helping quantum is the interesting part.
Quantum computers are sensitive machines: tiny disturbances can spoil a calculation. In July, Google Quantum AI and DeepMind showed AI adjusting Willow’s controls while it computes, helping it stay stable.
This is a tangible benefit of research teams working together. Useful quantum applications could eventually widen Google’s opportunity, but we assign no near-term earnings to them. Willow’s original launch was in 2024; today’s Gemini services are not powered by quantum computers.
04 / Small brain, big questions
What could a fruit fly teach a robot?
September’s male fruit fly map covers over 166,000 neurons across its brain and central nervous system. HHMI Janelia led the work with Google, the MRC Laboratory of Molecular Biology and University of Cambridge. This connectome, or wiring diagram, helps researchers trace how sensory information connects to movement. The research partnership ↗
There is an early precedent: the separate FLYNN preprint used an earlier fly connectome for simulated robot navigation, reporting resilience to sensory loss. It predates September’s map and does not establish performance in real robots. FLYNN research ↗
Buteon’s longer-term possibility: more resilient robot vision, navigation and movement control, alongside neuroscience tools. The map supplies structure, not a conscious brain or a ready-made AI. Better Gemini models and commercial returns remain possibilities to investigate.
05 / A great hand still has a price
What could shareholders actually earn?
GOOGL closed at $351.66 on October 9. StockAnalysis showed a roughly $4.30 trillion market value and 26.18× forward earnings when checked October 11. That multiple uses forecast profits. Plenty of success may already be expected. Market snapshot ↗
Why the historical P/E can flatter the story
Q2 earnings per share were $9.11, including $6.26 from equity investment gains. Removing that one effect leaves $2.85; it is not a complete measure of recurring earnings. SEC reconciliation ↗
The spending matters too. Q2 operating cash flow of $39.1 billion fell short of $44.9 billion in capital spending. The 10-Q records new debt, common shares and convertible preferred financing. Growth needs to reward each diluted share. Cash flows ↗ Financing ↗
Keep score / Buteon’s checkpoints
Three things that would change our mind
Search loses its economics
AI answers attract usage, but advertising profits deteriorate.
Adoption fails to pay
Argon trials stall; Cloud price competition consumes the gains.
Expansion outruns shareholders
Funding and dilution keep rising without better cash generation per share.
Restrictions on distribution or product bundling could also weaken Google’s advantage.
The Buteon view
So, the ace of the stock market?
Google has a credible claim. Computing power, capable models and distribution give it several ways to earn; scientific research opens further possibilities. Our bullish case rests on those strengths working together.
Calling the shares cheap requires fuller valuation. What each share earns decides how well Google’s hand plays.